# PROBABILISTIC APPROACH TO SIMULATE ANTHROPOGENIC LOAD IN CONTEXT OF FOREST FIRES OCCURRENCE

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nikolay Baranovskiy, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Oleg Kritski

ABSTRACT

Baikal is a natural heritage, the value of which is obvious to the entire world community. The unique nature of the Lake Baikal basin is subject to various negative impacts. One of the factors that disturb Baikal basin nature is forest fires, mainly due to the anthropogenic load. In this paper stochastic model is proposed to estimate the probability of forest fire from the anthropogenic load. A point source of anthropogenic load is considered. For example, a rural settlement, a camp, an industrial site, which are located in a controlled forest-covered area. Mathematically, the following model can be formulated. Let’s consider circle with radius in the some set. Then the cumulative distribution function (C.F.D.) of ignition near the neighborhood of the point X0 can be defined. Obvious that all properties of c.d.f. are satisfied. Note, that all the points X=(x,y) that lying on the circle Gρ have the same probability P of ignition in the set G.
Further mathematical calculations show that the Rayleigh probability density can be considered. Preliminary calculations of the forest fire probability from a point source of the anthropogenic load on the basis of scenario modeling are carried out. Conclusions are drawn regarding the influence of a point source of the anthropogenic load on the probability of forest fire occurrence in an adjacent territory.

KEYWORDS

forest fire danger, probability, anthropogenic load, simulation