GEOLINKS International Conference 2019, Book 3
AIR POLLUTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE
PREDICTION ESTIMATION OF AVERAGE ANNUAL AIR TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION NEAR CITY OF YAKUTSK
Dr. Galina Struchkova, Varvara Timofeeva, Dr. Tamara Kapitonova, Dr. Dmitriy Nogovitsyn
This article presents the results of a study of trends in the main climate parameters - average annual air temperatures and precipitation.
Properties of a territory of distribution of permafrost rapidly change under the influence of any natural or man-made processes. This particularly applies to an increase in the air temperature. It is known that the increase in the temperature causes the increase in depth of seasonal thawing, enhances the defrost process that leads to a change of properties of permafrost rocks, and with high ice content of soils can cause a loss of their bearing capacity, which, in turn, may be hazardous to technical systems built in this territory. The increased precipitation may also lead to the development of waterlogging and increased permafrost degradation. Consequences of changes in climatic conditions are also evident in the growth of frequency of occurrence of hazardous hydrological phenomena.
In this article, the following specific tasks are considered: methodological approaches to an analysis of long-term temperature series and identification of structural components of the time series to build analytical and predictive models, on the basis of probabilistic and statistical tools the models are obtained to predict the changes in climate variables, the modern trend of the change in the average temperatures is determined.
For modeling and prediction of climatic norms of the average annual air temperature and precipitation near the city of Yakutsk, the time series of studied climatic characteristics from 1891 to 1999 are used and they made a numerical retro-forecast of the change in the average annual air temperature till 2002.
climate changes, technical systems, permafrost, statistical modeling, forecasting.